Modelling the variation of demersal fish distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change

Abstract

Paper summary generated by OpenAI: This study employs a dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) to project the distribution changes of 17 demersal fish species in the Yellow Sea under climate change scenarios from 1970 to 2060. Utilizing outputs from three Earth system models (ESMs), the research identifies significant anti-poleward shifts in fish distribution, contrary to previous studies suggesting a movement towards higher latitudes. The findings indicate a shift rate of −1.17±4.55 km/decade under a low-emission scenario and −2.76±3.82 km/decade under a high-emission scenario, with the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass identified as a key driver. These insights have important implications for fisheries management and marine conservation strategies in the context of climate change.