Opportunities and challenges for Canada’s mariculture under climate change: a regional and sectoral outlook
Abstract
Mariculture is an important component of the seafood industry in Canada, but climate change presents both risks and opportunities. Using the Global Mariculture Production Model (GOMAP), an integrated framework that projects production potential under combined biophysical and socio-economic constraints, we assessed future changes in mariculture production, farm-gate prices, and employment for 13 key species across Canada’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Scenarios included two climate pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and three production approaches. Results show substantial regional contracts with important implications for spatial planning and adaptation policy. The Atlantic region shows modest gains under SSP1-2.6 but steep declines under SSP5-8.5 due to climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada, particularly central and northern areas, shows strong growth potential under SSP5-8.5, driven by climate-resilient species like Coho salmon and steelhead trout. However, these gains depend on policy, infrastructure, and spatial planning that reconcile mariculture expansion with conservation, Indigenous uses, and other priorities. Rising farm-gate prices may benefit producers but threaten affordability while employment outcomes diverge, with consistent job losses in Atlantic Canada but potential gains in the Pacific. Our findings highlight the need for region-specific adaptation strategies and investment in sustainable and resilient farming systems.
Abstract
Section titled “Abstract”Mariculture is an important component of the seafood industry in Canada, but climate change presents both risks and opportunities. Using the Global Mariculture Production Model (GOMAP), an integrated framework that projects production potential under combined biophysical and socio-economic constraints, we assessed future changes in mariculture production, farm-gate prices, and employment for 13 key species across Canada’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Scenarios included two climate pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and three production approaches. Results show substantial regional contracts with important implications for spatial planning and adaptation policy. The Atlantic region shows modest gains under SSP1-2.6 but steep declines under SSP5-8.5 due to climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada, particularly central and northern areas, shows strong growth potential under SSP5-8.5, driven by climate-resilient species like Coho salmon and steelhead trout. However, these gains depend on policy, infrastructure, and spatial planning that reconcile mariculture expansion with conservation, Indigenous uses, and other priorities. Rising farm-gate prices may benefit producers but threaten affordability while employment outcomes diverge, with consistent job losses in Atlantic Canada but potential gains in the Pacific. Our findings highlight the need for region-specific adaptation strategies and investment in sustainable and resilient farming systems.