Project Overview

Global Growth and Ecological Strain

The global population has grown from 2.5 to 8 billion between 1950 and 2022, and is projected to increase by another 2.2 billion by 2050. Alongside this population growth, expanding economic wealth is driving a rapid increase in global food demand, even as hundreds of millions of people continue to suffer from hunger or malnourishment.

Virtually every indicator of human activity—including natural resource extraction and waste production—has risen sharply since 1950. While this societal growth and development has improved many aspects of human well-being, it has also strained global ecosystems, placing immense pressure on biodiversity and contributing substantially to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

Threatening Earth’s Carrying Capacity

Consequently, Earth’s capacity to sustain life and support human well-being is increasingly threatened, raising serious concerns for food security, climate mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. For example, the intensification of crop, livestock, and aquaculture production has transformed vast natural habitats while generating waste that drives further pollution and climate change.

In oceans, a more than three-fold increase in the global marine fisheries catch since the 1950s has led to the overexploitation of fish stocks and rising greenhouse gas emissions from seafood production. These combined human-induced pressures continue to push us closer to—and in some cases, beyond—the “safe operating space” of Earth’s carrying capacity.

Balancing Food, Climate, and Biodiversity (FCB)

A critical global challenge is feeding the growing population in a just and equitable way while simultaneously meeting biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation goals. Addressing this challenge requires exploring pathways to “desirable” futures where these food, climate, and biodiversity (FCB) goals can be met together.

The scale and urgency of these interconnected challenges are highlighted in recent assessments by major international and national bodies, including:

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
• Natural Resources Canada
• The US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Designing Context-Sensitive Solutions

Achieving these desirable futures requires transformative solutions for sustainable food production, climate mitigation and adaptation, and biodiversity conservation. However, if these FCB solutions are not carefully designed with respect for complex and diverse social and ecological contexts, they can produce unintended negative consequences.

For instance, conservation initiatives that overlook local stakeholder needs can jeopardize food security—particularly for small-scale and Indigenous operators who often act as key stewards of nature. Similarly, climate adaptation measures, such as building seawalls to defend against sea-level rise, can destroy coastal habitats that are critical for supporting biodiversity, local fisheries, and community cultural practices.